Thank goodness for the NFC South.
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The Minnesota Vikings are 2-1 this year against the NFL’s most pitiful division, scoring wins against Atlanta and Tampa Bay.
And that game in New Orleans ended up being a lot more competitive than anyone expected (and might have swung the Vikings’ way had it not been for a ridiculous roughing penalty against Captain Munnerlyn).
The Vikings today will try to make it 3-1 against the South when they take on the 3-7-1 Carolina Panthers.
When you look at the way the Panthers’ season has gone, all you can say is “What the hell happened to Ron Rivera’s team?”
Carolina had to be the division favorite going into the season. Off last year, they appeared to be a team that was putting something good together on both sides of the ball.
And a lot of people expected Cam Newton to take the next step this year and become a top-of-the-line quarterback.
But Newton doesn’t seem to have taken that next step. In fact, in recent weeks he appears to be regressing at an alarming rate.
Newton’s brutal run began a month ago against Green Bay when he completed only 54% of his passes and wound up with a passer rating of 72.6.
He bottomed out against the Saints with a laughable 39.4 rating. He’s been more accurate the last two weeks, completing over 60% against the Eagles and Falcons, but he threw 5 picks total in those games.
Some of Newton’s struggles can be blamed on injury, and some of it is offensive line. You can pin down whatever causes you want, but the simple fact is that Newton has played poorly. He is a big reason why Carolina is 0-5-1 in their last six.
If Newton were a true top-drawer quarterback, he would be doing a better job of fighting through injury and offensive line issues. As the adversity has mounted for Carolina, Newton has simply gone off the cliff with everyone else.
Newton’s regression is perhaps not all that shocking all things considered, but what is surprising is the way Carolina’s defense has gone this year.
The Panthers’ D looked like it was really coming into its own last year, fueled by a top-5 front-7, but this year they have gone off the deep end, dipping all the way to 25th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA.
Carolina has been almost equally poor against the run (24th) and pass (20th). Their secondary has been a major mess this year and their vaunted front-7 has not been as dominating as expected, which only further exposes the back end.
The Panthers I’m sure are looking at the Vikings as a team they match up against defensively, given the Vikings’ struggles both on the offensive line and in their receiver corps.
Can the Vikings challenge that bad Panthers secondary? Teddy Bridgewater’s downfield accuracy issues have prevented the Vikings from taking advantage of porous coverage, and there’s no reason to believe those issues will simply disappear this week.
Things will not get any easier for Bridgewater and Minnesota with Phil Loadholt going down. The Vikes have not been great running the ball and now they’ve lost their best run blocker.
If there’s reason for major optimism in this game, it’s all about the Vikings’ defense.
Minnesota put together a very strong effort last week against Aaron Rodgers. After the challenge of the Packers passing game, the Cam Newton-led Panthers attack will seem like a walk in the park.
The match up of Minnesota’s fine defensive line, led by Everson Griffen and Sharrif Floyd, vs. Carolina’s patchwork offensive line would seem to heavily favor the Vikings.
Carolina simply can’t protect Cam Newton right now, and you know Mike Zimmer will be itching to exploit that.
A blowout victory might be asking a lot given the Vikings’ offensive problems – they simply don’t have that kind of firepower right now – but if they dominate on defense as expected, they should have no trouble pulling out the win against Carolina.
I don’t necessarily expect a wipeout like the Atlanta game, but I also don’t expect a grinding down-to-the-wire affair like the Tampa Bay game. This one should fall somewhere in the middle.
At day’s end, the Vikes should have a third win against the worst division in football. Some might look at that as a less-than-impressive feat, but when you’re a young, developing team like Minnesota, you take all the victories you can get.
You have to start somewhere, and beating up on lesser competition is always a good place to begin (it’s better than losing against bad teams, that’s for sure).
Next year, maybe the Vikings will have a better shot against upper-echelon teams. For now, we can enjoy feasting on the garbage heap of the NFC South.