Vikings offense will be treated differently without Adrian Peterson

After Adrian Peterson’s poor start to the season, many think that the Vikings will be able to seamlessly move past his injury, but that won’t be the case.

The injuries have been pouring in for the Vikings this season. With Adrian Peterson one of the latest to be ruled out, and fans are frantically trying to convince themselves that the team will be alright. While the team has the depth and talent to survive all of these injuries to some degree, eash starter lost is obviously a major blow to a team with Super Bowl aspirations.

However, many fans are casually brushing off Peterson’s injury, citing his ineffectiveness to start the year, Jerick McKinnon’s more versatile skill set, and Norv Turner’s over-dependence on the run as reasons his injury could actually benefit the team. Many of these points have some level of validity, but losing an All-Pro level running back is never a good thing.

It’s understandable that Adrian Peterson’s play-style can be very frustrating to fans. Throughout his career, Peterson’s boom-or-bust running style has not only extended from play to play, but from week to week.

Peterson is so dependent on big plays that sometimes he is simply contained for games at a time, leading to disappointing stat lines like the ones he posted this year.

However, up until this point in his career Peterson has always bounced back. Even after long droughts, Peterson breaks long runs and takes over games. For that reason, it doesn’t really make sense to claim that Peterson has fallen off a cliff based on his early performance this year. Sure, he’s no longer the exact same player he was in 2012, but he still brings immense value to the team.

To get an idea of just how much Peterson helps the team, all one has to do is turn on the tape and look at the defensive alignments he draws. For example, look at this defense that the Packers used to try to contain Peterson last week.

Even after bad weeks, opposing defensive coordinators game plan specifically to stop him, stacking the box and selling out against the run. Defensive formations like this have largely been the rule, not the exception for opposing teams throughout Peterson’s career. There are very few players around the league as respected by opposing coaches as Adrian Peterson, because they know he can break a game wide open at any moment.

Without Adrian Peterson in the backfield, opposing defenses will be able to key in on stopping the pass, double-covering Stefon Diggs and keeping more players back in coverage. Peterson’s value to the team in that regard simply can’t be captured by raw statistics.

I’m as big a fan of Jerick McKinnon as anyone, but the quick and versatile back simply won’t inspire the kind of fear from defensive coordinators that Peterson does on a consistent basis. McKinnon’s best fit in the offense was a complementary role, with his skill as an outside runner and receiver pairing up well with Peterson’s power on inside runs.

The main argument for McKinnon to have more of a featured role has always been that he fits better in a shotgun-heavy offense that emphasizes getting the running back involved as a pass-catcher. However, with Teddy going down and Sam Bradford taking over, the offense is very different from it was when those arguments were made.

Jerick McKinnon is a far better runner from the shotgun than Peterson, averaging over a full yard more than Adrian Peterson over his career. But with the offense centered around Sam Bradford, there’s less reason to run a shotgun-heavy scheme.

Per Pro Football Reference, Teddy’s passer rating was over 25 points higher from the shotgun than from under center, so a shotgun-oriented offense featuring McKinnon’s superior running from the gun made a lot of sense. However, Sam Bradford has actually performed slightly better from under center throughout his career, with a passer rating of just over one point higher.

In an offense centered around Sam Bradford, who is just as good from the shotgun as under center, Peterson’s I-formation, power running skill set is actually an ideal fit. McKinnon would still bring complementary value as a pass-catcher, gadget player, and third-down back, but the offense should have remained heavily centered around Adrian Peterson.

Now, Norv Turner will have to significantly adjust his offensive playbook for the second time this year, this time to suit the strengths of Jerick McKinnon.

Next: Adrian Peterson injury update: Vikings RB needs knee surgery

I still expect McKinnon to be successful in replacing Peterson, but to claim he is an upgrade or even equal to Peterson is dubious at best. In losing Adrian Peterson for at least much of the year, the Vikings lost a hall of fame talent, who opponents had to account for on every play. That can’t easily be replaced.