Free agent receiver Cordarrelle Patterson recently expressed a desire to return to the Minnesota Vikings, but should the team want him back?
After two disappointing campaigns in a row with the Minnesota Vikings, Cordarrelle Patterson entered this season- his contract yea
r- with one goal: to show that he is improving. With outstanding physical tools, the question with Patterson has always been whether or not he can refine the technical aspects of his game and become a true receiver.
Head coach Mike Zimmer summed up Patterson’s situation perfectly prior to the season (via Pioneer Press):
"“It’s really time for him to prove it now. If he wants to be something other than a returner this is the year he has to do it. You’re always hoping because he has the talent to do it. We’re hoping that he does. But there are guys that do and guys that don’t. Right now, he’s right on the fence.”"
At first glance, it certainly seems like Patterson was at least moderately successful. After failing to earn playing time in 2015, Patterson finally carved out a niche for himself on the offense. For the first time since his rookie season, his usage began trending upwards.
It was hardly consistent, but we finally saw CP's usage start to trend upwards last year. pic.twitter.com/nKZVUBSHcy
— JZ (@jzingz) March 12, 2017
Statistically, Patterson capitalized on the increased usage, finishing fourth on the team in both receptions (52) and receiving yards (453) and scoring two touchdowns.
To get a better sense of whether or not Patterson improved, however, it’s necessary to take a long look at the film. Patterson has always been able to produce when force-fed the ball on designed plays, it’s when he’s been asked to get open downfield and make catches that he’s struggled. For that reason, in order to get a sense of whether or not Patterson has developed it’s more important to look at how he produced, not whether he produced.
The findings are not very promising. On Cordarrelle Patterson’s 59 touches in 2016, nearly 41% came on screens and designed running plays. Even beyond those “gadget” plays, his production was made up mostly of short, simple routes, with drags (14%), hitches (12%) and out routes (10%) accounting for much of his usage.
While he was able to earn a spot on the field, quantifiably increasing the size of his role, he still was only effective on a very limited range of plays. In that sense, Patterson’s role hasn’t expanded at all.
Perhaps most discouraging was Patterson’s performance on downfield passing plays. Patterson was rarely thrown to on such routes, amassing just 11 total targets on go’s, corners, and posts throughout the season. When he was thrown to, he struggled greatly, catching just two deep passes all year (around 3% of his total touches).
For a wide receiver with electrifying speed who is supposed to provide an explosive downfield threat for the offense, that kind of production is simply unacceptable.
It’s easy to see why Patterson was rarely used on those routes. Patterson frequently struggled with press coverage at the line of scrimmage, getting pushed off of his routes and throwing off his timing with the quarterback. Even when targeted, he seemed to struggle to read and make a play on the.
Essentially, Patterson’s skills as a pure receiver didn’t develop enough to make him a competent downfield threat.
It certainly wasn’t all bad. Patterson’s route-running skills are clearly somewhat refined, he displayed improved hand-catching technique, and he didn’t have a noticeable miscommunication with the quarterback all year, but it just didn’t seem to be enough.
While his routes were generally at the proper depth and his breaks were noticeably more crisp than previous years, he was unable to incorporate the nuances that are necessary to effective route-running into his game. Patterson failed to gain separation with head fakes, jab steps, or other deceptive techniques, making his routes generally predictable and allowing defenders to stick with him and make plays on the ball.
Thus, even after Cordarrelle Patterson was reintroduced to the offense this year, he failed to make a significant impact as a true receiving threat, with the vast majority of his usage and production coming on gadget plays and short passes.
Now, the Minnesota Vikings are left with a decision. Should they take Patterson’s modest improvement, which was still far from enough to turn him into a well-rounded receiving threat, as a sign of things to come and bring him back in the hopes of future improvement?
That choice will ultimately be left up to the Minnesota Vikings, but it certainly seems like it was too little too late for Cordarrelle Patterson.
Next: 2017 Minnesota Vikings free agent tracker
The fifth-year receiver will bring whatever team invests in him an elite kick returner and a very effective gadget player, but he simply has not shown enough to inspire any hope of him developing into a reliable weapon in the passing game. Given the price tag that Patterson will likely carry, which is rumored to be upwards of $4 million per year, the Vikings will likely be better off letting the talented, but underperforming wideout walk.