Why Vikings DE Danielle Hunter won’t meet expectations in 2017
By Josh Zinger
Many are predicting big things from third-year pro Danielle Hunter, but the talented young Vikings pass-rusher may struggle to live up to the hype.
Following two impressive seasons to start his NFL career, many are predicting huge numbers from Minnesota Vikings defensive end Danielle Hunter this season. After 6 sacks as a rookie and then finishing third in the NFL with 12.5 sacks last year, fans are expecting Hunter to take yet another leap forward in production.
On the surface, it seems logical to expect a major increase in production from the defensive end. In addition to possessing an extraordinary combination of size, power, and speed, Hunter has developed his technical skills at an astounding rate thus far in his young career. Coming into the league with just 4.5 college sacks, Hunter quickly acquired an arsenal of moves and emerged as one of the premier pass-rushers in the NFL.
Danielle Hunter’s physical skills, developmental curve, and recent successes all point to big things ahead for the 22-year-old. However, Hunter is likely to disappoint this season, at least if history is any indication.
Using the Pro-Football-Reference database, I took a look at players whose first two years in the NFL most closely mirrored Danielle Hunter’s from a statistical standpoint. The results were far from inspiring.
To capture both Hunter’s rapid development and outstanding second-year production, I looked at all other defensive ends since 1970 that recorded under 10 sacks in their rookie season and increased their sack totals to the double-digits in their sophomore seasons.
Of the 26 players who matched these criteria, only five went on to increase their sack totals further in their third seasons. Instead, most of the players’ numbers actually declined significantly, by an average of 3.96 sacks.
Overall, this set of players averaged 4.17 sacks in year one, 12.67 sacks in year two, and 8.71 sacks in year three.
Despite impressive early production and rapid increases in sack totals across their first two years, the vast majority of these players failed to take an additional step forward in their third seasons. Given how closely Danielle Hunter’s early career trajectory matches these players’, it seems highly probable that he will follow this trend and regress toward the mean.
While it’s only natural to hope that Danielle Hunter will continue on his current pace and increase his numbers even further next year, it’s far more likely that he will finish with 8 sacks than it is that he will finish with 18. Only two players in the entire NFL finished with more sacks than Hunter’s 12.5 this year; it’s wildly optimistic, if not downright unreasonable, to expect that Hunter will better that number next year.
That hardly means that his early production was a fluke, however. JJ Watt, Jared Allen, and Mario Williams, among other household names, all fall into that category of players who experienced declining numbers in their third year. Finishing a season with upwards of 10 sacks is simply an incredible feat in the NFL, and even the best pass-rushers are hard-pressed to do it year after year.
Ideally, Danielle Hunter will be able to buck the historical trend and establish himself in the NFL’s upper echelon of defensive ends, but he seems particularly likely to statistically regress next year.
Despite Hunter’s outstanding production over the past two years, he has never held a full-time role on the Vikings defense, playing just under 58% of the team’s defensive snaps last year. While many point to the prospect of increased playing time as a reason that Hunter is likely to further increase his production next year, the reality is that it is just as likely to diminish it.
Danielle Hunter’s ability to rest and conserve his energy throughout an entire contest has proven critical to his success thus far. Of his 12.5 sacks last year, 8 came in the fourth quarter, after the offense has been worn down. Hunter was able to enter games late with fresh legs, taking advantage of exhausted offensive lines and racking up stats. After the wear and tear of playing an entire game, it’s unclear that Hunter would be able to maintain that level of late-game production.
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Simply put, an every-down role for Danielle Hunter is a projection. With all of his production coming from a rotational pass-rusher role, it’s impossible to predict exactly how he would perform as a full-time starter. While he will likely adapt to the role and capitalize on the increased snaps, it’s also likely that it will temper his ability to dominate tired offensive linemen.
Hunter clearly has all the physical tools and intangible traits to be a force in the NFL for years to come, but anyone expecting him to rack up 20 sacks next year needs to drastically lower their expectations.
Between the historical precedent of players in Hunter’s position regressing toward the mean and his likely transition into a different role, it’s unlikely that Hunter’s statistics will continue to improve at their current pace. More than likely, the young defensive end’s statistics will be a disappointment to many this year. Realistically, somewhere in the neighborhood of 8 sacks is a good expectation for Hunter this year.
Next: Is Trae Waynes ready to break out in 2017?
That being said, it’s important to remember that no matter what sack numbers Hunter puts up this year, all of the following statements can be true: Danielle Hunter is a core defensive player for the Vikings, Danielle Hunter is improving, and Danielle Hunter has a bright future ahead of him.