The 2024 NFL season was a whirlwind for the Minnesota Vikings and their fans.
With then-rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy lost for the season with a torn meniscus, and journeyman Sam Darnold taking the reins, no one had the Vikings winning 14 regular-season games and keeping pace with both the Lions and Eagles for all 18 weeks.
With McCarthy now healthy and ready to usher in a new era of Vikings football, projections for this team are once again all over the map. Minnesota deserves positive points for winning the offseason and stacking the roster from the trenches out. It’s also fair to expect some regression with a first-year starter under center and a rough schedule that’s among the five most difficult in the NFL.
The Vikings have accomplished 14-plus wins in a season exactly two times — in 2024 and 1998. So it’s not surprising that, in a deep dive for ESPN, analyst Bill Barnwell tabbed Minnesota as one of the league’s most likely teams to regress in 2025.
Barnwell’s overall conclusion, however, was surprising for a Vikings team that has serious question marks at both wide receiver and defensive back.
ESPN projects double-digit wins for the 2025 Minnesota Vikings
Barnwell isn’t overly concerned about Justin Jefferson’s hamstring, Jordan Addison’s suspension, McCarthy’s de facto rookie season — or a wild opening slate that has Minnesota playing on national television in five of their first seven games.
“The Vikings are a pretty unique team. The age of their roster and the moves they have made suggest they're trying to win right now, but they have what essentially amounts to a rookie quarterback leading the way. And while we normally associate debuting quarterbacks with subpar teams and young rosters, McCarthy is taking over a 14-win team, something I'm not sure has ever happened in the modern era. I'm not expecting a dropoff below .500 like the one we saw in 2023, but a record more in line with their 11.1-win point differential from 2024 would make sense.”
This projection is worth a double-take. Most prognosticators have the Vikings around the .500 mark, at eight or nine wins. Barnwell’s projection of 11.1 wins would put Minnesota more in line with the fan base’s expectations — right back in the NFC playoffs.
Even with some unproven starters like Isaiah Rodgers and Jeff Okudah poised to start in the secondary, we know the Vikings will be excellent on defense with Brian Flores dialing up unique game plans. The wide receiver depth chart, with Jalen Nailor now dealing with a hand injury, is less than ideal at this point in the season, but the Vikings have the luxury of both Kevin O’Connell and what should be an improved rushing attack to lean on behind the 1-2 punch of Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason.
We know the Vikings will be good. Their chances to be great hinge on McCarthy’s ability to get acclimated to the NFL quickly, execute the offense, and improve week to week. If Minnesota’s young QB can stay healthy and manage a challenging opening month of the season, the Vikings clearly have enough juice to rank among the league’s biggest surprises for the second straight year.