At least one NFL reporter just can't let it go, but the idea of Aaron Rodgers playing for the Minnesota Vikings in 2025 is 99.9 percent dead (thankfully). J.J. McCarthy, as we knew all along, is lined up to be the QB1 in Minnesota until further notice after losing his rookie season to a preseason knee injury.
Entering last year's draft, the Vikings were easy to see as the best landing spot for a rookie quarterback. Head coach Kevin O'Connell is as quarterback-friendly as any head coach in the league, and Minnesota's skill position pieces are top-notch. This offseason, a concerted effort was made to upgrade the biggest weak area on the offense--the interior line.
McCarthy was not asked to throw the ball a lot at Michigan, so what he can be in the NFL involved (and still involves) a good bit of projection. But we can look at some data from his last year in college to get some insight, and Thor Nystrom of Fantasy Life offered some notable highlights.
"McCarthy’s 72.3% completion percentage in 2023—No. 5 in the FBS in catchable throw rate—only dropped to 71.4% while scrambling. He has the lateral agility and acceleration to get out of sticky situations, and he takes his mechanics with him on the move. McCarthy’s improvisation could be special at the next level.
McCarthy mercilessly attacks the middle of the field—a key aspect of O’Connell’s offense. In 2023, McCarthy had the most completions in the intermediate range over the middle among the top quarterbacks in this draft class, finishing with an 85.6% adjusted completion percentage and 91.2 passing grade between the hashes."
As Nystrom also noted, McCarthy profiles as a plus-athlete, with the sixth-fastest 3-cone drill at the 2023 NFL Combine (6.82 seconds) and a reported 4.48 40-yard dash time while at Michigan. At the combine, his 61 MPH max velocity fell one mile per hour short of the event record. He had 10 rushing touchdowns over his career at Michigan, and overall, he seems to have some untapped upside as a runner.
Path for Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy to immediate fantasy football stardom in 2025 is clear
At a base level, here's what McCarthy has working for him beyond O'Connell and his own raw talent:
- One of the best wide receiver duos in the NFL (Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison)
- A top-tier tight end who will now be further removed from a torn ACL late in the 2023 season (T.J. Hockenson)
- A pair of running backs whose skill sets complement each other nicely (Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason)
- An upgraded offensive line, with left tackle Christian Darrisaw back from a torn ACL
It's obviously very early to be attaching any real value to fantasy ADP (Average Draft Position), and any data on that front is naturally limited. But leaning to best-ball drafts and the most popular platform for that, McCarthy sits at QB23 in Underdog Fantasy ADP right now. Fantasy Pros' consensus rankings, last updated on April 17 as of this writing, have him at QB24.
With that price point in mind, Shawn Childs of SI Fantasy recently featured McCarthy on his list of buy-low candidates before the 2025 NFL Draft. It's unclear how big of a deal McCarthy's knee injury still is, but Childs finished his analysis with the perfect punch line.
"His injury news is part of the equation, but sometimes a fantasy drafter must read the tea leaves to gain an advantage. McCarthy will also extend the pocket with his legs and create some fantasy value running the ball. He has top 10 quarterback potential, with a free price point before the 2025 NFL Draft."
McCarthy's ADP would have to climb a heck of a lot between now and the teeth of the 2025 fantasy draft season to take him out of the "QB2 with legit potential to finish as a top-10 fantasy quarterback" conversation. It's a rare category of upside to be in, but the Vikings' first-year starting signal caller is right there now that the specter of Rodgers is gone.