With leeway based on scoring format, Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson was a top-10 overall pick in every fantasy football draft. Concerns about having a quarterback who had not started an NFL regular-season game yet were assuaged by the idea he had previously shown himself to be "quarterback proof."
Things started fine enough, with Jefferson saving what would've otherwise been a lackluster day (four catches for 44 yards) with a touchdown in Week 1 against the Chicago Bears. Week 2's statline (three catches for 81 yards) was bolstered by a 50-yard catch, and when Carson Wentz took over for an injured J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson had at least 75 yards in five straight games.
Jefferson got back into the touchdown column when McCarthy returned to action in Week 9, again saving what otherwise would not have been a great outing.
All things considered, Jefferson's fantasy managers had to be ok with getting double-digit PPR points in every game to that point. In any scoring format, he was a top-15 fantasy wide receiver through Week 9.
Against the Bears in Week 11, Jefferson made it nine double-digit PPR point showings through 10 games this season. Within the new baseline for expectations this season, it certainly could've been a lot worse.
Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has one last chance to help his fantasy managers this year
A lot worse has happened. With a low point in Week 13 against the Seattle Seahawks (two catches for four yards), but not much better in Week 14 against the Washington Commanders, Jefferson has totaled 14.3 full PPR points over the last three weeks (WR68 over that span).
The matchup against Washington looked like a get-right opportunity for Jefferson. There was a notable play where he was wide open that just didn't work out, and if it had connected, the narrative of his day would have been far different.
It's now the playoffs in the vast majority of fantasy football leagues. A lot of Jefferson's managers may only be playing for a consolation bracket prize, but there surely are some who have navigated his down season to make the playoffs.
A stretch of schedule that makes McCarthy appealing in a certain fantasy light continues in Week 15 against the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas' front-seven play has improved in recent weeks, due to trade deadline additions and players returning from injury, but their pass defense remains an issue.
With that in mind, ESPN fantasy analyst Tristan Cockcroft has Jefferson as his wide receiver matchup to highlight for Week 15.
"It wasn't long ago that examining Jefferson's matchups was a laughable exercise, as he was as automatic a starter as they come. In his past five games, however -- as J.J. McCarthy has both struggled and missed time due to injury -- Jefferson's fantasy production has plummeted, as he has totaled 33.1 fantasy points with a 23.9% target share to rank outside the top 30 among wide receivers in either category. Consider this matchup a rebound opportunity for the onetime No. 1 overall fantasy football pick, with the Cowboys having been the worst schedule-adjusted defense against wide receivers for the season, not to mention third worst since the trade deadline when they made moves to bolster the unit."
We're at the point where it's impossible to confidently start Jefferson in a fantasy playoff week. But unless his managers (accounting for a flex spot) have three clear-cut better wide receiver options, the matchup against Dallas pushes it toward a risk that has to be taken.