Heading into the 2024 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings were widely considered the most ideal landing spot for a rookie quarterback. Whoever they ended up with from a deep crop of prospects at the position was going to be set up to succeed, perhaps immediately.
J.J. McCarthy drew that favorable card when the Vikings traded up one spot to get him with the 10th overall pick. There was some chance he could be the Week 1 starter as a rookie, but that went away when he suffered a torn meniscus in the preseason opener and the surgery he had was the long-term fix.
So the projection that was done in regard to McCarthy's NFL potential has had to wait until this year to start to be fleshed out.
A run-heavy offense and a strong defense at Michigan lessened McCarthy's opportunities to throw the ball, but the raw physical tools are clearly there (sixth-fastest 3-cone at the NFL Combine, a reported 4.48 40 -yard dash and a 61 mph max-velocity throw at the Combine).
As Thor Nystrom noted, McCarthy's 72.3 percent completion rate during his final season at Michigan was backed up by being No. 5 in the FBS in catchable throw rate and his completion percentage while scrambling was great (71.3 percent).
Until McCarthy takes an NFL regular season snap, we can't truly know how good he'll be. But he is in a fantastic situation, and Kevin O'Connell made some far less-talented quarterbacks into fantasy producers during his first three seasons as Vikings head coach.
Fantasy upside for Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy in 2025 is impossible to ignore
However obviously when it comes down to it, Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus put McCarthy on his list of five second-year fantasy breakout candidates for this year.
"He (McCarthy) never was a high-volume quarterback due to Michigan’s run-first offense and constantly playing with a lead, but he was great on a per-play basis. He was in the 90th percentile or better in each situation. He improved significantly from his first year as a starter to his second. His dropbacks per game decreased, but his stats still increased thanks to a much higher accuracy rate."
"McCarthy similarly never ran the ball too often himself, but he had a very high rate of gaining at least 15 yards or a first down. His speed and athleticism are both above average for an NFL quarterback."
On that last note, with college football still counting sack yardage against a quarterback's rushing yards, McCarthy had 632 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground over his three years at Michigan. He's not going to be the fantasy cheat code as a running quarterback that Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen or the "Tush Push"-inflated Jalen Hurts is, but McCarthy seems plenty capable of adding some notable surplus production with his legs.
O'Connell coaxed some notable fantasy weeks from Josh Dobbs and Nick Mullens after Kirk Cousins suffered a torn Achilles in 2023. Add in what Sam Darnold did last year, and Jahnke set a high potential bar for McCarthy in his first year as a starter.
"Even if McCarthy struggles like most quarterbacks do in their first year, the supporting cast and coaching staff should be enough to make McCarthy a top-24 fantasy quarterback. There is a chance McCarthy plays better than past Vikings quarterbacks, in which he could be a top-eight option."
Even while acknowledging the inherent unknown/risk, Jahnke still couldn't go without mentioning the situation McCarthy is in.
"Every quarterback who is in their first year as a starter with minimal rushing upside is a risk for fantasy football, but the coaching staff and surrounding cast in Minnesota put J.J. McCarthy in a better position to succeed than nearly all other first-year starting quarterbacks of recent seasons."
An ADP of QB20 as of this writing (h/t to Fantasy Pros) basically eliminates any risk attached to taking McCarthy in a fantasy draft. He's a QB2 with unique upside in one-quarterback leagues. In superflex leagues, he's weekly starter material right away with the same huge upside.