After losing his rookie season to a knee injury, J.J. McCarthy will now be able to prove if the Minnesota Vikings were indeed the best landing spot for a quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft. He is set up to succeed in a way few quarterbacks are, and under the guidance of head coach Kevin O'Connell his upside is huge.
From a fantasy football angle, there's a lot to like about McCarthy. He was an accurate passer at Michigan, particularly to the middle of the field, and his speed/athleticism points to upside beyond what he showed as a runner in college (632 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, and remember, sack yardage is counted against a quarterback's rushing yards at the college level).
With an ADP in QB2 range (QB19 right now via Fantasy Pros, citing ESPN and Yahoo!), McCarthy is sticking as a worthy upside target in fantasy drafts. The general unknown about him means that ADP is unlikely to noticeably climb through the teeth of draft season.
Analyst carries fantasy football hype for Minnesota Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy into the stratosphere
It's easy to climb aboard the McCarthy hype train this year, in fantasy or otherwise. It can also be easy to get carried away.
PFF's Nathan Jahnke recently put McCarthy on his list of three candidates to finish as the QB1 in fantasy this year. Not merely a QB1, meaning a top-12 finish, the QB1.
"[J.J. McCarthy] was never a high-volume quarterback due to Michigan’s run-first offense and constantly playing with a lead, but he was great on a per-play basis. He was in the 90th percentile or better in each situation. He improved significantly from his first year as a starter to his second. His dropbacks per game decreased, but his stats still increased thanks to a much higher accuracy rate.
McCarthy similarly never ran the ball too often himself, but he had a very high rate of gaining at least 15 yards or a first down. His speed and athleticism are both above average for an NFL quarterback."
It's very telling that the other two candidates on Jahnke's list are Jalen Hurts and Justin Fields. Both run a lot and thus have big fantasy upside.
The path to finishing as the QB1 in fantasy is paved as a runner (see Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, etc.). McCarthy is unlikely to do anywhere near enough in that area this year to get it done.
The possibility that he has a noticeable amount of touchdowns on the ground shouldn't be overlooked, but he'll need a lot of yardage too, and that's hard to envision.
As high as McCarthy's ceiling is in fantasy this year, there is a logical limit. Being mentioned as any kind of realistic candidate to be the top-scoring quarterback goes a step beyond that logical limit, to a stratosphere even the biggest McCarthy hype man can't get to.