On Wednesday, the San Francisco 49ers made the decision to name Sam Darnold their No. 2 quarterback instead of Trey Lance. The 49ers will now be reportedly exploring their options with Lance, which could include trading him elsewhere. So far, the Minnesota Vikings are a team that many have already suggested as a likely destination for Lance if he gets traded.
So even though he was the No. 3 overall pick in the NFL Draft just two years ago, some don't believe a team will have to give up an exorbitant amount of assets in order to acquire the young quarterback.
The Athletic's Jeff Howe recently spoke to eight NFL executives who shared what they believe it will cost a team to acquire Lance in a trade.
Here's what Howe found out from these eight executives.
"Three executives believed the 49ers could acquire at least a third-round pick for Lance — maybe as high as a second-rounder if a team is desperate enough — or a third plus a late-round selection.
The rest believed a late Saturday pick would be the best-case scenario for San Francisco, with a couple who were skeptical the Niners could move him at all."
So based on the majority, it sounds like a Day 3 draft pick (one from the fourth, fifth, sixth, or seventh round) is what it would probably cost the Vikings or another team to land the former No. 3 overall selection from San Francisco.
Currently, Minnesota has five Day 3 picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Vikings have two selections in the fourth round, two in the fifth round, and one in the sixth round.
If the Vikings are truly interested in acquiring Lance from the 49ers, they should be willing to part with one or two of these five Day 3 picks. Even though he hasn't had much success in the NFL yet, Lance's ceiling is still much higher than any player Minnesota is going to select on Day 3 of next year's draft.
Anything higher than a fourth-round pick is probably when the Vikings should hang up the phone. Even though three of the league executives Howe spoke to claimed that the 49ers could get a third or second-round selection in return for Lance, those aren't picks Minnesota should be giving up for the 23-year-old signal-caller.
If the Vikings want to invest Day 2 or Day 1 draft picks on a young quarterback, it should be on someone either from the 2024 draft class or someone in the league who has already proven to be a a capable starter.
This isn't to say that Lance still can't develop into a solid NFL quarterback one day. But for now, Minnesota shouldn't be giving up anything higher than a fourth-round pick for someone whose current team doesn't even trust him enough to make him their No. 2 quarterback for the regular season.