Wide receiver was not the biggest need for the Minnesota Vikings to address in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, but they took the opportunity to potentially create a new top-end duo at the position by taking Jordan Addison with the 23rd overall pick.
Addison immediately became that productive second fiddle to Justin Jefferson, with a touchdown in each of his first two NFL games. After a breakout game in Week 7 of his rookie season, he rarely left the field (more than 91 percent snap share in nine of the final 10 games) on his way to topping 900 yards with 10 touchdowns.
Addison aggravated a training camp ankle injury in last year's season opener, and he missed the next two games. His catch and yardage totals dropped from his rookie season (63 receptions for 875 yards), but he was again a scoring maven with nine touchdowns.
Addison would be the No. 1 wide receiver on quite a few teams, but with Jefferson in the fold for the Vikings he operates in relative obscurity as he enters what looks to be a pivotal season in his career.
Concern for Minnesota Vikings WR Jordan Addison's 2025 fantasy outlook is rooted in numbers
Addison moves toward his third season with a likely suspension hanging over him. In July of 2024 he was arrested in Los Angeles for allegedly driving under the influence, and the latest update said a jury trial is scheduled for July 16, 2025.
In July of 2023, Addison was also cited for speeding and reckless driving in St. Paul, Minnesota. So the league office could see him as a something of a repeat offender, it's likely just a matter of how many games he is suspended for.
Missed games of course are not ideal under any circumstance as we try to shape a fantasy football outlook for a player. But the possibility he'll miss a couple games due to a suspension is not the biggest concern for Addison's fantasy outlook in 2025.
As Nathan Jahnke of Pro Football Focus noted, "Addison’s fantasy value through two seasons has been built entirely on touchdowns." His 19 receiving touchdowns over the last two seasons are tied for fourth-most in the league. Meanwhile, he ranks just 28th in receptions (133) and 26th in receiving yards (1,786) over that span, with finishes as the WR23 in 2023 and the WR24 last year (0.5-point PPR, through Week 17).
One of every seven catches (14.3 percent) Addison has had over his first two seasons has gone for a touchdown, with 32 red zone targets and nine red zone receiving touchdowns over that span. Eight of of his touchdowns thus far in his career have been from 29 or more yards out, with the remaining two from exactly 20 yards out.
Apart from the general randomness of touchdowns, Jahnke highlighted Addison's up and down yardage production through two seasons.
As a rookie, Addison was held under 45 receiving yards in five of the final seven games and he had a total of six games below 45 yards. Last season, he had seven games with less than 45 receiving yards. That's 13 of 32 career games with less than 45 receiving yards, with a touchdown to save his fantasy day in just three of those.
Jahnke also noted Addison's low first-read target shares (below 11.5 percent in each of his first seasons), as expected with Jefferson around, which helps yield low overall target shares. The return to full strength of tight end T.J. Hockenson, as he'll be further removed from a torn ACL late in the 2023 season, also stands to impact Addison. And the question mark of quarterback J.J. McCarthy until we see him in a regular season game has to be mentioned.
As May winds down, Addison carries an ADP (Average Draft Position; 0.5-point PPR) of WR33 and No. 65 overall. That's WR3 territory, and a sixth-round pick, in a 12-team league. In that range, most fantasy managers can probably deal with some volatility and if news of a suspension comes his ADP may drop some.
Addison is not a player to avoid in fantasy drafts this year without proper context. Just be aware of the strong likelihood of touchdown regression, and the parallel unlikelihood he'll have the target volume to offset it.